Oregon Webfoots

My Take...

29 January 2014

2 February UPDATE: The Streak Continues ...

SO? Seattle won. Did you bet the house? Shoulda ... and the streak continues. Teams with the FEWEST SEC players come away as Super Bowl Winners. See you next year ...

Have you heard? There's a football game Sunday.

It has been sliced and diced any number of ways. Analyzed and OVER-analyzed ... But has a winner been projected by looking at the number of players per college conference on an NFL team?

Including practice squads and reserve lists, Seattle has a 63-man roster and Denver 64. There are 17 different conferences represented on Seattle's team and 14 for Denver.

We have heard - for what seems like forever - from fans in the southeastern part of the country. The chant. S-E-C! ... S-E-C! ... S-E-C! Yes, grudgingly we acknowledge that top to bottom the SEC has deserved the claim as the nation's best collegiate conference.

But as a Pac-12 fan I would say "Not by much." ... and ... "Not so fast".

We looked at each roster and summed up by conference using current 2014 alignments. Rutgers and Maryland counted in the Big 10 and Utah and Colorado in the Pac 12, for example. We also assigned Russell Wilson to his last school, Wisconsin, rather than his first school, NC State.

We only went back to 2011 to get an historical reference. Let's take a look.

2011

Green Bay Packers			Pittsburgh Steelers
Conf	Numbr	%	Conf	Numbr	%
SEC	13	17%	SEC	13	18%
B1G	9	12%	B1G	12	16%
PAC12	9	12%	ACC	11	15%
MAC	8	10%	Big12	7	9%
AAC	7	9%	Pac12	6	8%
Mtn West	7	9%	MAC	5	7%
ACC	6	8%	CUSA	3	4%
BIG12	5	6%	Indep	3	4%
CUSA	2	3%	Sun Belt	3	4%
Indep	2	3%	AAC	2	3%
OVC	2	3%	Big Sky	2	3%
Big Sky	1	1%	CIAA	2	3%
Great Lakes	1	1%	unk	2	3%
MEAC	1	1%	CAA	1	1%
Northern Sun	1	1%	MEAC	1	1%
PSAC	1	1%	Mtn West	1	1%
Southland	1	1%	TOTAL	74
Sun Belt	1	1%	Count	16
SWAC	1	1%
TOTAL	78
Count	19

For Green Bay: There were 6 conferences out of 19 that provided 68% of the talent. The "western" conferences [Pac12, BiG, Mtn West] was at 32% and the AAC/SEC group provided 26%. The SEC was represented at 17%

For Pittsburg these numbers were: Top 5 - 66%; P12/B1g/BIG12 - 34%; SEC/ACC - 32%; SEC - 18%

So then the winner, Green Bay, had the higher Top 5%, lower SEC/AAC(ACC) %; lower SEC %; and higher conference count (19 vs. 16) and the MVP was Aaron Rodgers -- Pac 12.

	Packers	Steelers
Higher Top 5 %	*68%*	66%
Lower SEC %	*17%*	18%
Higher P12/B1G/MW %	32%	*34%*
Conference Count	19	16
Game MVP	Aaron Rodgers(P12)

2012

New York Giants			New England Patriots
Conf	Numbr	%	Conf	Numbr	%
B1G	16	21%	SEC	15	20%
ACC	14	19%	B1G	12	16%
SEC	12	16%	PAC12	10	14%
AAC	4	5%	ACC	9	12%
PAC12	4	5%	AAC	5	7%
MAC	3	4%	BIG12	4	5%
Mtn West	3	4%	Big Sky	2	3%
Sun Belt	3	4%	MAC	2	3%
Big12	2	3%	Mtn West	2	3%
CUSA	2	3%	OVC	2	3%
IVY	2	3%	unk	2	3%
MIAA	2	3%	Atlantic10	1	1%
Atlantic 10	1	1%	Big East	1	1%
Big West	1	1%	CAA	1	1%
CAA	1	1%	CUSA	1	1%
Independ	1	1%	Great Lakes	1	1%
PSAC	1	1%	Indep	1	1%
SIAC	1	1%	MEAC	1	1%
SWAC	1	1%	Rocky Mtn	1	1%
unk	1	1%	Southland	1	1%
TOTAL	75		TOTAL	74
Count	20		Count	20

In 2012 we had an anomaly. Manning's desperation heave at the end of the game; else the winner would have been different. So this would be an "outlier" (smile). Nonetheless ... continuing the analysis - and ignoring the desperation pass - we see the closeness of the stats; hence the evenness of the contest:

	Giants	Patriots
Higher Top 5 %	67%	*69%*
Lower SEC %	21%	20%
Higher Pac12/B1G %	27%	*30%*
Conference Count	20	20
Game MVP	Eli Manning (SEC)

2013

Baltimore Ravens			San Francisco 49ers
Conf	Numbr	%	Conf	Numbr	%
ACC	14	19%	B1G	14	21%
SEC	11	15%	SEC	12	18%
B1G	10	14%	ACC	7	11%
PAC12	9	13%	BIG12	6	9%
Big12	6	8%	Pac12	6	9%
AAC	3	4%	Mtn West	4	6%
CAA	3	4%	MIAA	3	5%
SIAC	2	3%	na	3	5%
Sun Belt	2	3%	CUSA	2	3%
SWAC	2	3%	Independ	2	3%
Amer East	1	1%	AAC	1	2%
Atlantic10	1	1%	Big Sky	1	2%
Big West	1	1%	MAC	1	2%
Indep	1	1%	OVC	1	2%
IVY	1	1%	SIAC	1	2%
MEAC	1	1%	SSAC	1	2%
MIAA	1	1%	Sun Belt	1	2%
MTN West	1	1%	TOTAL	66
OVC	1	1%	Count	17
Southland	1	1%
TOTAL	72
Count	20

For Super Bowl XLVII we begin to see a trend. The winner, Baltimore, had the better of the important statistics. Most especially, lower SEC %.

	Ravens	49ers
Higher Top 5 %	*69%*	68%
Lower SEC %	*15%*	18%
Higher P12/B1G/B12 %	35%	*39%*
Conference Count	20	17
Game MVP	Joe Flaco (CAA)

2014

Seattle Seahawks			Denver Broncos
Conf	Numbr	%	Conf	Numbr	%
SEC	15	24%	SEC	17	27%
PAC 12	13	21%	AAC	12	19%
B1G	8	13%	MTN WEST	8	13%
AAC	6	10%	PAC12	7	11%
MTN WEST	4	6%	B1G	6	9%
BIG 12	3	5%	BIG 12	5	8%
BIG SKY	3	5%	BIG SKY	2	3%
CUSA	2	3%	ATLANTIC10	1	2%
CANADA	1	2%	CAA	1	2%
GAC	1	2%	CUSA	1	2%
GREAT LAKES	1	2%	IND/ACC	1	2%
IND/ACC	1	2%	MAC	1	2%
IVY	1	2%	OVC	1	2%
MIAA	1	2%	SUN BELT	1	2%
PATRIOT	1	2%	TOTAL	64
SIAC	1	2%	Count	14
SWAC	1	2%
TOTAL	63
Count	17

So, since 2011 we have seen a noticeable trend. The team with the lower SEC % wins the Super Bowl. The bonus here, of course, is that Seattle is the only team with any players from Oregon on the roster (see below). That seals the deal....

So there you have it. A totally unscientific and completely biased analysis of who the winner will be on Sunday. You have my permission to bet the house ....

...On SEATTLE.

	Seattle	Denver
Higher Top 5 %	73%	*78%*
Lower SEC %	*24%*	27%
Higher P12/B1G/B12 %	40%	33%
Conference Count	17	14
Game MVP?	Russell Wilson

So? Who YOU got?

Below are all current Oregon players in the NFL:

PLAYER	TEAM	POSITION
Kiko Alonso	Buffalo Bills	Linebacker
Mark Asper	Buffalo Bills	Offensive Lineman
Kenjon Barner	Carolina Panthers	Running Back
LeGarrette Blount	New England Patriots	Running Back
John Boyett	Denver Broncos	Practice Squad
Jairus Byrd	Buffalo Bills	Safety
Patrick Chung	Philadelphia Eagles	Safety
Kellen Clemens	St. Louis Rams	Quarterback
Drew Davis	Atlanta Falcons	Wide Receiver
Ed Dickson	Baltimore Ravens	Tight End
LaMichael James	San Francisco 49ers	Running Back
Dion Jordan	Miami Dolphins	Defensive End
Kyle Long	Chicago Bears	Guard
Jeff Maehl	Philadelphia Eagles	Wide Receiver
Casey Matthews	Philadelphia Eagles	Linebacker
Haloti Ngata	Baltimore Ravens	Defensive Tackle
David Paulson	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tight End
Spencer Paysinger	New York Giants	Linebacker
Eddie Pleasant	Houston Texans	Safety
Dante Rosario	Chicago Bears	Tight End
Geoff Schwartz	Kansas City Chiefs	Offensive Lineman
Adam Snyder	San Francisco 49ers	Guard
Jonathan Stewart	Carolina Panthers	Running Back
Walter Thurmond	Seattle Seahawks	Cornerback
Will Tukuafu	San Francisco 49ers	Fullback
Max Unger	Seattle Seahawks	Center
T.J. Ward	Cleveland Browns	Defensive Back
Darrion Weems	Dallas Cowboys	Offensive Tackle
Brandon Williams	Carolina Panthers	Tight End

Go Ducks